FC Tokyo finished the 2024 season. While it was a year that saw numerous record-breaking figures in business aspects such as average attendance and annual revenue, the team also faced the reality of not being able to compete for titles. We interviewed President Shigeya Kawagishi to reflect on the club's current position from both business and football perspectives over the past year. Following the first part that touched on the strong business side, the second part focuses on the football perspective. Despite improvements in league ranking and goals compared to last season, how do we perceive the reasons for not being able to break into the true upper echelon, and in what direction are we aiming to move forward?
Coverage and Composition = Kei Sato (Freelance Writer)
To increase the probability of victory
President Kawagishi has previously mentioned that "a soccer club is a dual wheel of business and football." From here, I would like to ask about the football aspect. First, please share your honest thoughts on the performance for the 2024 season.
First of all, we always want to be involved in the title race, but we were unable to reach that goal. To be honest, it is frustrating. Our league performance was 7th place, improving by four positions from 11th in the 2023 season. However, we were significantly behind the champions Vissel Kobe in points, and there was a 10-point gap to the AFC Champions League Elite qualification zone. Among the three J1 clubs based in Tokyo, we ranked the lowest, settling into a much more subdued position than the one we envisioned at the start of the season. We were also eliminated early in both the J.League YBC Levain Cup and the Emperor's Cup. It was a season that made us feel there is still much to do and many things we are lacking.
──Will it be the case that the success in the business aspect will be utilized in the football aspect from now on?
To begin with, I believe that it is not possible to drastically change the football side from the business side. The direction of the arrow is to improve the quality of football first, and then figure out how to develop that into the business. Then, it becomes a cycle of reinvesting the results from the business back into football.
For us, when I took office, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, it was necessary to undertake efforts to rebuild and boost the business side, so we started from there. However, to create a good cycle, we must switch on the football side; otherwise, we cannot enter that cycle. Therefore, we are currently focusing on that and want to work on it. This was also something I mentioned in the previous interview. However, to be honest, it has not yet become the picture I envisioned. As a club as a whole, I believe we must devote ourselves fully to that, pursue results, and thoroughly refine our efforts.
How far have we progressed in preparing to enter the cycle of reinvestment from the business side to the football side in the three years since you became president?
I took over the baton in the 2022 season. With sales declining due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the question was how much budget could be allocated to the football side, including personnel costs. This was not unique to FC Tokyo, but it was certainly a very difficult situation. You could say it was always a tightrope walk. In that regard, the previous president and current chairman, Naoki Ogane, also struggled greatly. Under such circumstances, we managed to get through without cutting the football budget too much and have been gradually increasing the budget as we move forward.
Naturally, there are always costs involved in the business side, so we cannot invest all the increased revenue into football, but we are firmly reinvesting the profits generated. This applies not only to the top team but also includes the academy, and we have finally reached the stage where we have started using profits across the entire football side.
That said, as stated in 'FC Tokyo VISION 2030', I believe many people feel that the current season's performance is insufficient to instill the image of Tokyo = FC Tokyo. In particular, there may be fans and supporters who are shocked to have fallen behind the newly promoted teams, FC Machida Zelvia (3rd) and Tokyo Verdy (6th).
That's right. At the new management announcement, I also declared, "Tokyo is blue and red," and approached the season with that mindset. However, we were unable to realize that, and I have always felt that we must be number one among the three Tokyo clubs. As FC Tokyo, which has long been in J1, we took pride in that and wanted to prove it through results. I strongly feel that we cannot continue like this.
What do you think is the reason for this result?
Simply put, we lost in football. Of course, when looking closely at the numbers, there are both good and bad aspects, so it is not a simple matter. Our ranking improved from 11th to 7th, and our points increased as well. The average goals per match also improved to 1.39, which is the highest figure since the 2013 season under the management of Ranko POPOVIC. We could say this is a step forward toward achieving our stated goal of "+1 Goal (One More Goal)".
However, on the other hand, we were unable to reduce the number of goals conceded. An average of 1.34 goals conceded per game is a tough figure to keep pace with the top teams. The top teams concede around 1.0 goal on average. There is a significant gap there. Although we scored more goals than last season, the high number of goals conceded prevented us from advancing to the top ranks. Additionally, the gap with the expected goals also emerged as an issue.
──Could you explain in detail?
To put expected goals simply, it refers to how many chances there were to score goals. There seem to be various calculation methods, but according to Data Stadium, FC Tokyo's expected goals was 1.21. In contrast, the average goals per match was 1.39, so it can be said that the team scored efficiently. There were many cases where goals were scored from limited chances. Expected goals are calculated based on a combination of factors such as the number of shots and the locations from which they were taken, and a low value means there were many low-probability shots. In the end, although the number of goals increased, it may have given the impression that the team was not getting close enough to the goal or that chances were limited.
It is often said that over a long season and through repeated seasons, the expected goals and the actual number of goals tend to be roughly similar figures. This season, the number of goals increased compared to last season, so it was good that we scored efficiently; however, I also believe this is not something that can be consistently reproduced every season.
So, should the direction of team building aim to improve the expected goals?
Yes, that is something shared within the club. If we don’t increase the expected goals, we cannot continue to score. Looking at the top clubs in the 2024 season, Kobe and Sanfrecce Hiroshima have numbers like 1.6 or 1.8. There is a significant gap compared to us, which means there are fewer clear scoring chances. If we don’t improve these numbers, our ranking will not rise. It is often said that we need to improve the reproducibility of scoring chances, but on the other hand, although there are similar situations, football does not allow for exactly the same scene to be recreated. In the final moments, it comes down to a combination of the players’ imagination, ideas, and finishing ability. Including those aspects, I believe we need to delve much deeper; otherwise, the expected goals will not increase.
──Rikizo MATSUHASHI has been appointed as the new manager for the new season. Did the new manager select based on such considerations?
Expected goals are ultimately a result indicator and serve as reference data, but they are nonetheless one of the important factors. The numbers left by the previous manager Peter CKLAMOVSKI and the former manager Albert PUIG ORTONEDA during their time in the J2 League were very good, with a high goal rate and a low rate of goals conceded. However, there were differences in the category and the players involved, so it cannot be attributed solely to the managers, and it was not possible to replicate those results exactly at FC Tokyo. This time, with Rikizo MATSUHASHI appointed as the new manager, we explained what the club is seeking, and conversely, we were able to thoroughly hear what Mr. Matsuhashi is thinking, so the sharing of understanding proceeded smoothly. What left a strong impression was the very high resolution of the discussion. The amount of information was also tremendous.
──Please tell us the reason why you chose Coach Matsuhashi among several candidates.
FCTokyo believes that when considering changing the football they aim for, it is extremely important to understand how the coach thinks about the philosophy and how it is implemented within the team, and it is essential to proceed with a shared understanding with the club. Naturally, better communication is preferable for this. Since I became president, I have worked with two foreign coaches, and while various communications have taken place within the club, considering the current situation of the club, I thought that a Japanese coach might be better next. I believe Coach Matsuhashi is suitable in that regard. Since the end of the season and the confirmation of Coach Matsuhashi's appointment, communication and mutual understanding have rapidly progressed.
Our budget size ranks around 7th to 8th in the league. To improve our standings from here, we will, of course, work hard to increase the budget. At the same time, I believe it is also necessary to compete against coaches who can deliver good performance relative to their budget. With that in mind, I consider Coach Matsuhashi to be one of the best leaders. What left a strong impression on me in talking with Coach Matsuhashi was when he said, "In Tokyo, we seek Tokyo’s optimal solution." I believe that mindset is exactly what leads to bringing out the team’s performance. We will have the opportunity to hear the coach’s thoughts again at the new system announcement event on January 10, 2025, and I hope he will continue to seek the optimal solution and fight for it.
──Finally, please share your thoughts on the relationship between business and football, Mr. Kawagishi.
In reality, soccer clubs always face the issue of budgets. Talking about it may sound quite unappealing, but from a management perspective, we aim to create the maximum possible budget with some leeway, and the role of those in charge of strengthening the team is to effectively utilize that budget to build the team. Except for the 2019 season, we have generally ranked according to the size of our budget. In the 2024 season, we finished 7th in the J1 League and were unable to deliver a performance significantly above our budget. We want to change this and create a cycle where we become a strong team and increase our operational scale. Whether it is choosing the coach, team composition, operations, or management, by raising the output of everyone involved with the club, we want to generate a new chemical reaction that will empower us to transform the team. We hope that the 2025 season will be a year in which we can firmly demonstrate that power to everyone.
For the first part, please see here
